Polymarket
TEMPEREDPrediction Market · Polygon · $500M+ TVL · 10 contracts
Public risk assessment — scores are produced with the same methodology as monitored protocols
Security Profile
60
72
55
75
35
72
54
78
65
100
60
72
55
75
35
72
54
78
65
100
Audit History
Bug Bounty Program
Assessment
Prediction market with 47-month track record and ~$1B TVL. D5 very low (35) due to fully centralized governance and CFTC settlement. D3 low (55) for admin-overridable resolution oracle. Strong market adoption but significant centralization.
Dimension Breakdown
How scores work →- Admin controls market creation and resolution
- User pause/unpause capability for admin
- Centralized market resolution (UMA oracle + admin override)
- Operator/admin role separation in CTF
- Binary outcome token market model (well-understood)
- USDC-based collateral (stablecoin risk)
- Orderbook/AMM hybrid for trading
- ~$1B TVL demonstrates economic viability
- UMA optimistic oracle for market resolution
- Admin can override resolution (centralization risk)
- Resolution disputes possible but admin has final say
- Single oracle dependency for all market outcomes
- Live since mid-2021 (47 months)
- Major usage during 2024 US election cycle
- Regulatory scrutiny adds operational risk
- Z-factor: 0.887
- Fully centralized operation (Polymarket Inc.)
- No on-chain governance mechanism
- Admin controls market creation, resolution, pausing
- Significant regulatory concerns (CFTC settlement 2022)
- Score derived from continuous adversarial security research
- Professional team (VC-backed)
- Polygon chain operational characteristics
- Regulatory compliance overhead
- Centralized resolution creates operational SPOF
- CTF (Conditional Token Framework) from Gnosis
- Limited DeFi composability (prediction-specific)
- USDC dependency for all markets
- Polygon chain deployment
- Member of 1 dependency cluster(s)
- No cross-protocol cascade exposure detected
- Score: 100/100 (higher = more isolated from systemic risk)
- Source: cross_protocol_composition.json dependency analysis
- Gnosis CTF framework (battle-tested base)
- Standard Solidity contracts
- Polygon deployment (MATIC chain)
- Moderate dependency set
Risk Drivers
Primary risk factors driving this score, ordered by severity.
Adversarial Risk Signals
Observable security posture indicators. These signals reflect publicly verifiable information and responsible disclosure outcomes. No specific vulnerability details are exposed.
Score History & Verification
Score provenance tracking begins with the next reassessment.
On-Chain Data
- Protocol Slug
- "polymarket"
- Oracle
- BRORegistry (Base)
- Evidence
- IPFS (pinned)
- Staleness Threshold
- 24 hours
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